Cringelysays:

But Apple WILL make some inroads against Microsoft. The new Intel Macs will run Windows XP unofficially, and Apple Support acknowledges that they are only days from running XP officially, too. So Apple finally has a solid argument why Windows-centric companies and homes should consider trying a Mac. The best case, though, says that Apple sells an additional million units, which aren’t enough for Steve Jobs, so I see him going into a kind of stealth competition with Microsoft.

Here’s how I believe it will work. Apple won’t offer versions of OS X for generic Intel hardware because the drivers and the support obligation would be too huge. But just as you can buy a shrink-wrapped copy of 10.4 for your iMac, they’ll gladly sell you a shrink-wrapped Intel version intended for an Intel Mac, but of course YOU CAN PUT IT ON ANY MACHINE YOU LIKE. The key here is to offer no guarantees and only limited support, patterned on the kind you get for most Open Source packages — a web site, forums, download section. and a wiki. Apple will help users help themselves. With two to three engineers and some outreach to hackers and hardware makers, Apple could put together an unofficial program that could easily attract two to three million Windows users per year to migrate their old machines to the new OS. Imagine the profit margins of three engineers effectively generating $300-plus million per year in sales.

If Apple’s goal with the Macinteltosh boxes is to gain market share–and they are a public company, so that is almost certainly their goal–this would be a brilliant two-pronged approach. Macs have always appealed to a certain type of person. A person who is most interested in things that “just work.” These users were typically not very technologically inclined. With the introduction of OS X the tables turned. Macs were suddenly appealing to the most hardcore of techies–those who could appreciate the Unix-flavored core of the OS. With this new strategy, Apple positions themselves to expand both of those markets considerably. By enabling the “Just Works” users to put Windows on their Mac as a second OS, the barrier to swiching is lowered. Simultaneously, Apple will “stealthily” become the *nix distribution amongst techies, but without needing to offer support.

Since it’s the time of year for bloggers to offer their predictions for the coming year, here’s mine: Windows Vista launches in September. Simultaneously, Apple announces OS X 10.whatever is available in an Intel flavor in stores near you, but they do not officially support installations on non-Mac hardware. They (or someone else) will also announce an open-source project to develop drivers for OS X that allow it to operate with a generic box. Techies rejoice.

Tags:
Apple,Microsoft,Vista,OS X,MacBook,MacInteltosh,2006 Predictions,OS Wars

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